Tuesday, February 17, 2004
Visualising lansdscape change connected with climate change: Landscapes research page: "This project is investigating the practicalities of reinterpreting the available climate change impacts information from existing research (frequently at the national scale, or related to specific sectors) at a scale more useful to local stakeholders/policy makers. ... the subject is the rural landscape and how climate change will interact with changes in farming practice, and the consequences for water supply and demand, soils and biodiversity. ... the use of visualisations as a medium for communicating climate change impacts information. Landscapes from study areas included in the Countryside Agency's Land Management Initiative project provide the subject for this research.
...
Visualisations are mainly in the form of digitally-altered photographs but for landscapes in Norfolk and the Humberhead Levels, we are also developing computer-generated visualisations derived from a GIS database. For these sites in addition, we will be producing VRML �Virtual Reality� models which offer the possibility for a user to �fly through� the landscape or �visit� particular locations of interest to them. The work is being funded by the Jackson Foundation and the Countryside Agency"
...
Visualisations are mainly in the form of digitally-altered photographs but for landscapes in Norfolk and the Humberhead Levels, we are also developing computer-generated visualisations derived from a GIS database. For these sites in addition, we will be producing VRML �Virtual Reality� models which offer the possibility for a user to �fly through� the landscape or �visit� particular locations of interest to them. The work is being funded by the Jackson Foundation and the Countryside Agency"
James Robertson Ja,es Robertson (with Alison Pritchard) has been active in the area of futures and changinng ways of life for decades, notably with his newsletter TURNING POINT. Now he has set up this website:
"I found that, after twenty years among the centralised institutions and assumptions of Whitehall and the big banks, I was attracted by the small-is-beautiful and convivial-society teachings of thinkers like Fritz Schumacher and Ivan Illich.
I still am, but I have come to accept that localisation must evolve together with globalisation as complementary parts of a new multi-level approach to the organisation of human affairs, and that we must reconstruct our institutions to allow people to live normal lives as active members of families, active residents of neighbourhoods and districts, active citizens of regions, nations, and the world, and as conscious participants in the evolution of the universe.
People who are interested in large ideas, such as the evolution of consciousness, - generally tend to be less interested in practical questions of institutional reconstruction; and vice versa.
That reflects today's pervasive tendency to specialise in one field or another - and, in particular, to keep ethical and spiritual values in separate compartments from politics and economics and science. We need to bridge the gap.
Enabling and Conserving - enabling people to take greater power over their lives, and to conserve the earth - are principles that reflect a development in our consciousness.
....What should they mean for our work, our health, our lifestyles, our values, our education, our use of energy, our treatment of the environment, our technologies, our economic system, our system of money and finance, and so on?
....The aim of the website is to focus attention on questions like those. "
"I found that, after twenty years among the centralised institutions and assumptions of Whitehall and the big banks, I was attracted by the small-is-beautiful and convivial-society teachings of thinkers like Fritz Schumacher and Ivan Illich.
I still am, but I have come to accept that localisation must evolve together with globalisation as complementary parts of a new multi-level approach to the organisation of human affairs, and that we must reconstruct our institutions to allow people to live normal lives as active members of families, active residents of neighbourhoods and districts, active citizens of regions, nations, and the world, and as conscious participants in the evolution of the universe.
People who are interested in large ideas, such as the evolution of consciousness, - generally tend to be less interested in practical questions of institutional reconstruction; and vice versa.
That reflects today's pervasive tendency to specialise in one field or another - and, in particular, to keep ethical and spiritual values in separate compartments from politics and economics and science. We need to bridge the gap.
Enabling and Conserving - enabling people to take greater power over their lives, and to conserve the earth - are principles that reflect a development in our consciousness.
....What should they mean for our work, our health, our lifestyles, our values, our education, our use of energy, our treatment of the environment, our technologies, our economic system, our system of money and finance, and so on?
....The aim of the website is to focus attention on questions like those. "
Friday, February 13, 2004
Startling report based on work of Global Allergy and Asthma European Network - basdically, something is going on and we dont know what. Big question - why Uk, Ireland, Oz and NZ so far in front? Oz and NZ would seem to rule out the diesel particulate theory:Guardian Unlimited | Special reports | The allergy epidemic: by 2015 half of us may be carrying one of these: "Global Allergy and Asthma European Network"
"Half of all Europeans may be suffering from some sort of allergy by 2015 if the escalating epidemic, which is responsible for millions of children missing school and being hospitalised and for adults staying off work, remains unchecked, scientists believe.
The dire prediction comes as the biggest-ever research project into the causes of allergy and asthma is about to be launched in Europe. Scientists from many countries will coordinate their efforts in an attempt to find out why rates are soaring and why children in the UK have the third highest rate of asthma in the world.
The inexorable rise in allergies is causing serious concern. By 2015, researchers predict that half of us will have an allergy which in some cases, such as bee or wasp stings, will be fatal and in others will seriously compromise our quality of life. .."
further mining of the Guardian site will find letters in repsonse to this story at
http://www.guardian.co.uk/medicine/story/0,11381,1147220,00.html
Research backgrouind:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/headlines/news/article_04_02_03_en.html
Launch of the GALEN network:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/press/2004/pr0502en.html
"Half of all Europeans may be suffering from some sort of allergy by 2015 if the escalating epidemic, which is responsible for millions of children missing school and being hospitalised and for adults staying off work, remains unchecked, scientists believe.
The dire prediction comes as the biggest-ever research project into the causes of allergy and asthma is about to be launched in Europe. Scientists from many countries will coordinate their efforts in an attempt to find out why rates are soaring and why children in the UK have the third highest rate of asthma in the world.
The inexorable rise in allergies is causing serious concern. By 2015, researchers predict that half of us will have an allergy which in some cases, such as bee or wasp stings, will be fatal and in others will seriously compromise our quality of life. .."
further mining of the Guardian site will find letters in repsonse to this story at
http://www.guardian.co.uk/medicine/story/0,11381,1147220,00.html
Research backgrouind:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/headlines/news/article_04_02_03_en.html
Launch of the GALEN network:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/press/2004/pr0502en.html
Friday, February 06, 2004
Millenium Project report on Science Technology and Innovation. Lots of material, but inaccuracies eg in this descritpion of Foresight:
"The increasingly global nature of R&D also challenges national concepts of STI foresight
and the resulting support for science. Foresight continues to use traditional political
borders and disciplinary structures as the parameters for discussion. This makes sense,
given the need to define and bound any problem for intelligent discussion. Nevertheless,
trends towards the globalization of science mean that national foresight efforts may miss
some of the very important global and cross-disciplinary trends that are emerging outside
the bounds of their exercises.
While many economists and policymakers see STI as a contributing factor for economic
growth and development, the ways in which science advice is applied towards this end
depends upon the capacity of the country to follow through on this advice. Foresight
exercises for developing countries should be tailored to the needs and capacities of the
country sponsoring the foresight. This will increase the chances that foresight will
successfully provide more than mere advice to the decision-making process, but have the
greatest chance for successful development and commercialization."
Thursday, February 05, 2004
EducationGuardian.co.uk | Research | Futurology gets a little more exact:An extended plug for Philip Ball's new book Critical Mass: the Physics of Society " Not uninterestijng, but uses term "social physics" eiother with a completely straight face or in ignotance of the 200 year old (at least) provennnance of the term (and of claims about the new dawn its bringing. Here's a sample:
"Social physics won't solve all of society's problems, but it might provide a more rational basis for making social decisions. It can be hard to predict the effect of particular laws and policies once they are unleashed on a highly interactive population. By using agent-based modelling, and by understanding the analogies that such models often show with behaviour seen in physics, it might become possible to base some of those decisions on more than wishful thinking or dodgy statistics. In other words, it might become easier to anticipate the kinds of society that might result from certain choices. The hardest issue, of course - and here physics can offer no help - is to decide what kind of society we want in the first place."
"Social physics won't solve all of society's problems, but it might provide a more rational basis for making social decisions. It can be hard to predict the effect of particular laws and policies once they are unleashed on a highly interactive population. By using agent-based modelling, and by understanding the analogies that such models often show with behaviour seen in physics, it might become possible to base some of those decisions on more than wishful thinking or dodgy statistics. In other words, it might become easier to anticipate the kinds of society that might result from certain choices. The hardest issue, of course - and here physics can offer no help - is to decide what kind of society we want in the first place."
Tuesday, February 03, 2004
Fortune.com - Technology - The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare Article from FORTUNE magazine - excerpt:
"what would abrupt climate change really be like?
... renowned Department of Defense planner Andrew Marshall
sponsored a groundbreaking effort to come to grips with the question. A Pentagon
legend, Marshall, 82, is known as the Defense Department's "Yoda"-a balding,
bespectacled sage whose pronouncements on looming risks have long had an
outsized influence on defense policy. Since 1973 he has headed a secretive think
tank whose role is to envision future threats to national security. The Department
of Defense's push on ballistic-missile defense is known as his brainchild.
Three years ago Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld picked him to lead a
sweeping review on military "transformation," the shift toward nimble forces and smart
weapons.
When scientists' work on abrupt climate change popped onto his radar
screen, Marshall tapped another eminent visionary, Peter Schwartz, to write a
report on the national-security implications of the threat. Schwartz formerly
headed planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group and has since consulted with
organizations ranging from the CIA to DreamWorks-he helped create futuristic scenarios
for Steven Spielberg's film Minority Report. Schwartz and co-author Doug
Randall at the Monitor Group's Global Business Network, a scenario-planning think
tank in Emeryville, Calif., contacted top climate experts and pushed them to
talk about what-ifs that they usually shy away from-at least in public.
The result is an unclassified report.... a dramatic but plausible scenario to help planners
think about coping strategies." An abridged version is on Fortune's site:
"what would abrupt climate change really be like?
... renowned Department of Defense planner Andrew Marshall
sponsored a groundbreaking effort to come to grips with the question. A Pentagon
legend, Marshall, 82, is known as the Defense Department's "Yoda"-a balding,
bespectacled sage whose pronouncements on looming risks have long had an
outsized influence on defense policy. Since 1973 he has headed a secretive think
tank whose role is to envision future threats to national security. The Department
of Defense's push on ballistic-missile defense is known as his brainchild.
Three years ago Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld picked him to lead a
sweeping review on military "transformation," the shift toward nimble forces and smart
weapons.
When scientists' work on abrupt climate change popped onto his radar
screen, Marshall tapped another eminent visionary, Peter Schwartz, to write a
report on the national-security implications of the threat. Schwartz formerly
headed planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group and has since consulted with
organizations ranging from the CIA to DreamWorks-he helped create futuristic scenarios
for Steven Spielberg's film Minority Report. Schwartz and co-author Doug
Randall at the Monitor Group's Global Business Network, a scenario-planning think
tank in Emeryville, Calif., contacted top climate experts and pushed them to
talk about what-ifs that they usually shy away from-at least in public.
The result is an unclassified report.... a dramatic but plausible scenario to help planners
think about coping strategies." An abridged version is on Fortune's site:
