Guide to scenarios


downloadable from http://www.infra.kth.se/fms/pdf/ScenarioRapportVer1_1b.pdf

website of Environmental Strategies Research - fms which "is mainly engaged in comprehensive future studies and in development of analytical tools for sustainable development. The research focus is on what a sustainable city might look like, and to explore methods for the assessment of environmental impacts of various systems."

"The website describes an approach a region could take to embrace forward thinking and adaptation. It provides a “magic box” of tools and methods to anticipate future challenges and structural changes, and to give regions better options to deal with these challenges and changes in a structured and strategic way."

Ian says: a Magic Box!!! Sounds a bit too much like charlatanry to me: someone should tell them to use better terminology. (And the other thing it brings to mind is Pandora... and then Hellraiser....)

"6 separate boxes... are structured to lead the viewer through a regional development process, namely; 1) you gather information about your region, 2) you try to look into the future and anticipate challenges, 3) you transform this information into knowledge that can be presented for a wider audience, 4) you define the key competencies that the region should work with in a strategic way, 5) you move into action and delivery and 6) you evaluate the added value of the process.

Download pdf-file final flyer
Content in 6 boxes:

1) gather information about your region

regional signal panels
the role of data
surveys
statistical data vs. future oriented data
Video documentary: "where you're going"

2) looking into the future the scenario planning process

video documentary: "scenario planning in practice"
scenario planning Manual

3) transforming information into knowledge the role of experts

the role of forecasting
the role of benchmarking

4)defining regional key competencies

methodologies to prioritise
consultation process
video documentary: "defining regional key competencies"

5) moving into action

cultural aspects of regional development
Monitoring
partnerships and networking
bottom up processes
training & businesses
reconversion units
regional branding

6)Impact and added value in the regions
regional learning and results
regional wellness

Scenario Planning Toolkit

from the DfT website, not from www.foresight.gov.uk !

This says that: "Although the toolkit is based on the IIS scenarios all the workshop material can be used with any set of scenarios."
Download PDF

To help clarify some of the long term issues and to provide a context to support decision making, the Foresight Intelligent Infrastructure Systems (IIS) project produced four possible scenarios that explore uncertainties about the future of intelligent infrastructure systems:

• future scientific capabilities
• technological developments
• the role of business and Government
• social attitudes

The scenarios are not an attempt to predict what will happen or to suggest what the preferred future might be; they are stories which suggest various possible, even extreme, outcomes. They are designed to stimulate thought, to spell out some of the opportunities and threats we might face in the future and to inform today's decisions. Full details of the scenarios can be used to judge the risks and opportunities of policy relating to the future management of intelligent infrastructure.

The toolkit provides policymakers and other stakeholders with resources they need to explore the scenarios and use them to support their own decision making. It contains some background information on scenarios and some practical tools to be used in workshops and meetings. It includes:

• slide presentations for the Intelligent Infrastructure Systems (IIS) scenarios
• summaries of each of the IIS scenarios
• facilitation sheets which suggest various ways to work with the scenarios - ranging from 60 minute exercises to half day sessions
• techniques sheets which give detailed explanations of how to run particular techniques/workshops

Scenario Planning Toolkit (4 Mb)

A toolkit containing background information on scenarios and practical tools to be used in workshops and meetings. Produced by Waverley Management Consultants for the DfT.

Annex 2 (1 Mb)

A toolkit containing background information on scenarios and practical tools to be used in workshops and meetings. Produced by Waverley Management Consultants for the DfT.

Annex 3 (586 kb)

A toolkit containing background information on scenarios and practical tools to be used in workshops and meetings. Produced by Waverley Management Consultants for the DfT.

Labels: Planning, Scenario, Toolkit