FUTURES

Practical Tips for Forecasting New Technology Adoption [PDF]
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.
The pattern by which new technology is adopted is reasonably well-understood and, assuming there is data, there are mathematical models and methods to help forecast. However, many of the most strategic forecasts involve not much data and lots of uncertainty. There are "big" methods--alternate scenarios, for example--to address such issues, but sometimes the practitioner needs to make a good forecast quickly and with few resources. In the process, the same issues often come up. This paper provides examples, philosophy, and practical advice for addressing these issues so that quick--and dirty--forecasts are long-lasting and beautiful. This article appears in the 4th Quarter 2008 issue of the prestigious international telecommunications journal Telektronikk. (February 2009)

Technology Forecasts for US Telecommuncations Network [PDF]
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. and Ray L. Hodges
This article provides an overview of TFI's latest quantitative forecasts of the US telecommunications network in terms of competition, broadband data rates, Internet video, HDTV, fiber in the loop deployment, wireless broadband, and VoIP. Between now and 2016, the US is forecast to convert most of its telecommunications infrastructure to all-fiber and 4G wireless transmission and all IP-switching. However, different operators will follow different paths to get there and new players are emerging as the telephony, cable television, and Internet paradigms converge. This article appears in the 4th Quarter 2008 issue of the prestigious international telecommunications journal Telektronikk. (February 2009)

Mechatronics: Getting Your Act Together [PDF]
Henry Elliott, M.S.M.E., John H. Vanston, Ph.D., and James A Irwin
Products and systems, such as automobiles, have become increasingly complex, especially as computerized control and software systems have become ubiquitous. Coincident with this trend toward more non-human control and automation, it has become necessary that the people who design, manufacture, install, maintain, repair, and calibrate such equipment possess skills that integrate mechanical, electronic, and computerized control and software systems. Mechatronics describes the multidisciplinary integration of the technical disciplines to improve the performance and functionality of such products and systems. This white paper provides recommendations that academic, government, and industry leaders should consider to ensure that the United States fully understands and utilizes this technology to maintain the country's economic competitiveness (May 2008). A complimentary copy of the report the paper is based on is available below.

TFI Provides Top 19 Technology Trends for 2008 TFI Ushers in the New Year with Special Trend Paper!
For the fourth year running, Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI) provides a list of forward-looking trends for the coming year that will have significant impact on companies that use technology for competitive advantage. These predictions differ from our normal activities where TFI traditionally looks further out into the future. (December 2007)

A New Telecommunications World
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.
The telephone network was built to provide narrowband voice service to essentially every home and office. That world is disappearing. The reasons are many including convergence, competition, broadband, increasing data rates, wireless, and others. This complimentary paper covers these and gives forecasts of the probable telecom future.(September 2007)

Mechatronics, A Technology Forecast
John H. Vanston, Ph.D., Henry Elliott, M.S.M.E., Jim Brazell, Eliza Evans, Ph.D., James A Irwin, and Michael A. Bettersworth, MA
Mechatronics is another way of saying "intelligent mechanical systems" and it is the foundation of many 21st century enabling technologies. This publication, co-authored by Technology Futures' staff, includes an overview of mechatronic technology and analysis of related occupations and salaries, inventory of existing mechatronic curriculum and considerations for colleges considering developing related programs and lists of industry experts and mechatronics companies. Texas State Technical College (TSTC) System sponsored the report. The report is housed on the TSTC website. (July 2007)

TFI Provides Top Technology Trends for 2007
For the third year running, Technology Futures provides a list of forward-looking trends for the coming year that will have significant impact on companies that use technology for competitive advantage. (January 2007)

Home Technology Integration, A Technology Forecast
John H. Vanston, Ph.D., Henry Elliott, M.S.M.E., Michael A. Bettersworth, MA, and Wayne Caswell
The market for integrating digital technology into residences is expanding beyond large, custom-built homes and into the broader mass housing market. The home technology integration (HTI) sector includes audio, video, networking, control systems, air conditioning, security and computer technology. This publication, co-authored by Technology Futures' staff, includes an overview of HTI technology, the nature of HTI jobs and skills, a directory of many HTI companies, and market drivers and constraints impacting the HTI industry and employment. Texas State Technical College (TSTC) System sponsored the report. The report is housed on the TSTC website. (December 2006)


...
etc...