Wednesday, May 20, 2009
In the course of a two-year project, the EPO interviewed around 150 key players - including critics - from the fields of science, business, politics, ethics, economics and law, seeking their opinions on how intellectual property and patenting might evolve over the next fifteen to twenty years. Four scenarios - relevant and plausible stories about the future - were developed in a series of workshops from their answers.
Each scenario examines the future from a different perspective:
Market Rules (business)
The story of consolidation in the face of a system that has been so successful that it is collapsing under its own weight
Whose Game? (geopolitics)
The story of conflict in the face of changing geopolitical balances and competing ambitions
Trees of Knowledge (society)
The story of erosion in the face of diminishing societal trust
Blue Skies (technology)
The story of differentiation in the face of global systemic crises
Read
- about the background to the project
- about the process
- about the discussions at the European Patent Forum
- the open-ended interviews
- the detailed interviews
- selected pages from the compendium
- the whole "Scenarios for the Future" compendium as a bookmarked PDF
- a selection of articles and comments about the Scenarios
- about other scenarios
Friday, May 15, 2009
future of identity management
By looking at the broader future challenges in society and the future of technology, Outsights worked with Sir James Crosby and the Treasury team on his independent review, "Challenges and opportunities in identity assurance". This review looked at how to maximise the economic and social advantage to the UK from having the most effective ID assurance systems and infrastructure.
UK Government Futures
A wide survey of futures thinking in Government with projects completed by Outsights using the Sigma Scan (www.sigmascan.org) and scenario thinking.
Challenges and Opportunities in Identity Assurance (HM Treasury 2008)
A review looked at how to maximise the economic and social advantage to the UK from having the most effective ID assurance systems and infrastructure.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Accelerating Studies"
There is a radio prog on future developments at http://accelerating.org/presentations/JohnSmartWBAI3May2009.mp3
and a report on the future of the the web: Metaverse Roadmap (MVR): Pathways to the 3D Web. ... an extensive 10-year technology forecast and 20-year visioning survey of virtual and 3D Web technologies, markets, and applications.
ASF say of themselves:
"An international conference, listserve, publication series, and wiki community of scholars exploring evolutionary and developmental processes in the universe and its subsystems, and thereby seeking to advance the science, systems theory and methods of foresight. How do we differentiate predictable and unpredictable process on the universal scale? Join us!
1. Looking for foresight community? Visit Global Foresight, ASF's wiki directory of Networks, Events, Programs, People, Orgs, and Resources for emerging global foresight culture.
2. Like to meet other foresighted folks in your local community? Start a Future Salon, on your own or with a co-moderator. Invite interesting local thinkers to give free talks on future-oriented topics once a month (or less), and go to dinner afterward for more conversation. Grow your network of change- and innovation-oriented friends!
3. Want a credential in foresight or futures work? See Foresight and Futures Studies - Programs and Resources, ASF's list of twelve Primary and forty-one Secondary graduate programs in strategic foresight or futures studies. Consider these if you want interdisciplinary training in thinking about accelerating change.
4. Are you a foresight educator or researcher? Join Foresight Education and Research Network (FERN), our global social network for foresight students and educators (K-12, university, professional), and place to share open-source foresight course materials and practices (see Foresight Development for one such course).
5. Interested in learning and advancing the science and systems theory relevant to acceleration studies? Visit the Evo Devo Universe research community, an ASF-sponsored global network of scholars exploring and critiquing evolutionary and developmental hypotheses and models of change in the universe and its subsystems.
6. Can ASF help your organization? Contact us if you'd like talks or workshops, or contract futures research to better understand and guide accelerating technological change. Join our newsletter for the latest updates. Thanks!"
Tuesday, May 05, 2009
RAND report for EEA on a review of scenario methods literature
From the Executive Summary:
"...the shortage of research on scenario planning and its influence means that there is limited guidance on how to optimise scenarios, in terms of both outputs and uptake by policy-makers.
This technical report addresses this lack of information, presenting a review of relevant academic and non‑academic literature on the issue. It introduces and analyses a pool of 52 pieces of research on scenario planning, commonly known as 'evaluative scenario literature'. Collectively, these studies provide insights into:
• the types of scenarios that exist and those that work in different contexts, both in the public and private sectors;
• the characteristics that enable organisations to use scenarios more effectively;
• the ways that scenarios influence decision‑making processes and robust organisational strategies.
While further research on these topics is needed, drawing on a broader evidence base, this report provides interesting insights, pointing the way for more detailed analysis.
In general, this study finds that there is little compelling evidence to support the significant claims often made regarding the potential benefits of using scenarios. The limited research focusing on impacts suggests that scenarios can improve the robustness of decision‑making, organisational performance and individual learning. Scenarios have less impact, however, if they identify threats for which there is no viable response or are based on flawed methodologies. Moreover, scenario planning faces particular challenges in the public sector. Long‑term thinking is difficult in the compartmentalised environment of modern government and cannot, in any event, provide a technical 'fix' if a context is driven by short-term concerns. The diversity of government objectives and interests can also make it difficult to establish one single client.
Such challenges notwithstanding, several studies suggest that scenarios can play a useful role in developing robust organisational strategies. In addition, the process of scenario development offers a variety of ancillary benefits, notably raising awareness, learning from past experiences and reconsidering the validity of policy assumptions. Engaging stakeholders and policy-makers directly in development also boosts the validity and credibility of outputs."
