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Thursday, April 24, 2008

Millennium Project scenarios bibliography 



Annotated Scenarios Bibliography -
fund while looking for RAND and BLOSSOM



Environment Research Funders' Forum: Horizon Scanning Project Board meeting's agendas and minutes
Horizon Scanning Project Board - some papers here too. But better still go to

The environment – scanning for uncertainty

The Environment Research Funders' Forum has produced an analysis of issues affecting the environment which might impact on the UK's interests over the next 20 years.

Environmental problems are never out of the headlines now, but these are the ones that we know about. The forum has tackled the difficult task of trying to identify environmental themes that are hedged about with uncertainties. Might these develop into full-blown problems that could affect the UK socially, financially or perhaps impact on our health?

The project
In a horizon-scanning project, forum members and external experts identified broad themes of strategic importance to the UK. These themes were narrowed down to dimensions of uncertainty - themes that are developing in an uncertain way, perhaps approaching a tipping point, or about which we know too little. Examples of dimensions are cities and the environment, food production and sustainability of water supply.

The outcomes
The final, prioritized list identifies 11 dimensions of uncertainty. The report describes these in detail, how they might develop and their relevance to policy. It also explores the potential impacts of these dimensions that we need to understand better and the research questions we need to ask. The reports ends with recommendations about how the forum should take this work forward; for instance, through reviewing research, monitoring trends and sharing outcomes and ideas with partner organizations.

The report
The report in five volumes covers the process and outputs from the study.

  • Volume 1 : an overview of the project and executive summary
  • Volume 2 : the dimensions of uncertainty in detail
  • Volume 3 : a synthesis of the strategic issues raised during the interviews in phase 1
  • Volume 4 : key issues raised during the workshops carried out in phase 1
  • Volume 5 : the voting process and outcomes during phase 2.

Horizon Scanning ReportDownloads a pdf file (1·43MB)(1·43MB)



Dutch horizon scanning 



Horizonscan
'Horizon Scan Report 2007, Towards a Future Oriented Policy and Knowledge Agenda'
- report for Dutch Sector Councils now available


Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Guide to scenarios


downloadable from http://www.infra.kth.se/fms/pdf/ScenarioRapportVer1_1b.pdf

website of Environmental Strategies Research - fms which "is mainly engaged in comprehensive future studies and in development of analytical tools for sustainable development. The research focus is on what a sustainable city might look like, and to explore methods for the assessment of environmental impacts of various systems."

Friday, April 18, 2008

“Regional Key Competencies”

"The website describes an approach a region could take to embrace forward thinking and adaptation. It provides a “magic box” of tools and methods to anticipate future challenges and structural changes, and to give regions better options to deal with these challenges and changes in a structured and strategic way."

Ian says: a Magic Box!!! Sounds a bit too much like charlatanry to me: someone should tell them to use better terminology. (And the other thing it brings to mind is Pandora... and then Hellraiser....)

"6 separate boxes... are structured to lead the viewer through a regional development process, namely; 1) you gather information about your region, 2) you try to look into the future and anticipate challenges, 3) you transform this information into knowledge that can be presented for a wider audience, 4) you define the key competencies that the region should work with in a strategic way, 5) you move into action and delivery and 6) you evaluate the added value of the process.

Download pdf-file final flyer
Content in 6 boxes:

1) gather information about your region

regional signal panels
the role of data
surveys
statistical data vs. future oriented data
Video documentary: "where you're going"

2) looking into the future the scenario planning process

video documentary: "scenario planning in practice"
scenario planning Manual


3) transforming information into knowledge the role of experts

the role of forecasting
the role of benchmarking

4)defining regional key competencies

methodologies to prioritise
consultation process
video documentary: "defining regional key competencies"

5) moving into action

cultural aspects of regional development
Monitoring
partnerships and networking
bottom up processes
training & businesses
reconversion units
regional branding

6)Impact and added value in the regions
regional learning and results
regional wellness






Scenario Planning Toolkit

from the DfT website, not from www.foresight.gov.uk !

This says that: "Although the toolkit is based on the IIS scenarios all the workshop material can be used with any set of scenarios."
Download PDF PDF image

To help clarify some of the long term issues and to provide a context to support decision making, the Foresight Intelligent Infrastructure Systems (IIS) project produced four possible scenarios that explore uncertainties about the future of intelligent infrastructure systems:

The scenarios are not an attempt to predict what will happen or to suggest what the preferred future might be; they are stories which suggest various possible, even extreme, outcomes. They are designed to stimulate thought, to spell out some of the opportunities and threats we might face in the future and to inform today's decisions. Full details of the scenarios can be used to judge the risks and opportunities of policy relating to the future management of intelligent infrastructure.

The toolkit provides policymakers and other stakeholders with resources they need to explore the scenarios and use them to support their own decision making. It contains some background information on scenarios and some practical tools to be used in workshops and meetings. It includes:

Scenario Planning Toolkit (4 Mb)

A toolkit containing background information on scenarios and practical tools to be used in workshops and meetings. Produced by Waverley Management Consultants for the DfT.


Annex 2 (1 Mb)

A toolkit containing background information on scenarios and practical tools to be used in workshops and meetings. Produced by Waverley Management Consultants for the DfT.


Annex 3 (586 kb)

A toolkit containing background information on scenarios and practical tools to be used in workshops and meetings. Produced by Waverley Management Consultants for the DfT.


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Monday, April 14, 2008

STOA reports online 



Scientific Technology Options Assessment - STOA

(STOA 23) 01/2008
Interactions between new technologies and the job market, flexicurity and training/vocational training ...
(STOA 182) 06/2007
RFID and identity management in everyday life
...
(STOA 181) 04/2007
The role of nanotechnology in chemical substitution
...
(STOA 179) 02/2007
Alternative technology options for road and air transport
...
(STOA 178) 02/2007
Gene, vaccine and immunotherapies against cancer: New approaches to an old problem
(STOA 175) 01/2007
Galileo Applications - Workshop report
...
(STOA 183) 10/2006
Technology assessment on converging technologies ....
(STOA 121) 12/2003
Alternative automotive fuels - Supply, technological and environmental scenarios to 2030
...
(STOA 120) 12/2003
The comparative study of the cultural products and services industry EU-USA

(STOA 119) 12/2003
Open-source software in e-government...

etc etc


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