Sunday, April 19, 2009

Growing Older and Wiser Together. 

Waverley Management Consultants - Examples of Work
three scenarios developed for the Scottish Parliament's Futures Forum report on ageing: Growing Older and Wiser Together. The scenarios - which were developed through desk research rather than a workshop programme - can be downloaded from the Forum's website here.

Thursday, April 02, 2009

Young seniors - Copenhagen Institute 

Young seniors will shape society

Young seniors will shape society

From Members' Report 4/2008: The young seniors 2020

Aging is one of the most striking megatrends changing our society. The number of 60+ year-olds will increase greatly between now and the year 2020. The 60 to 80-year-old cohort will increase most, in percentage and absolute terms.

Af Anders Bjerre, Klaus Æ. Mogensen, Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen, Lisbeth Dons Jensen, Hanna Schüle og Martin Kruse

From senior burden to senior strength

Young seniors will shape society

From Members' Report 4/2008: The young seniors 2020

Aging is one of the most striking megatrends changing our society. The number of 60+ year-olds will increase greatly between now and the year 2020. The 60 to 80-year-old cohort will increase most, in percentage and absolute terms.

Af Anders Bjerre, Klaus Æ. Mogensen, Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen, Lisbeth Dons Jensen, Hanna Schüle og Martin Kruse

From senior burden to senior strength?

From the MR 4/2008 article "Young seniors will shape society".

The 80+ population will not increase as much, especially in absolute terms. Population aging is a function of two trends: longer life spans and fewer births. Both increase the proportion of senior citizens in the population, which increases the dependency burden, if the elderly of tomorrow behave like the elderly today. But fresher, better educated “young” seniors, and a greater need for senior involvement in employment and society in general, can change this pattern. Over the next ten years, aging and how we respond to it will increasingly affect society. More will reach the age of traditional retirement. That sharpens the demands for the recruiting and retention of seniors and the many other groups who can replace them, such as the disabled and immigrants.

Over the next ten years, the pressure on the welfare system will not come from the need for more services and treatment for seniors. It will come from a labor shortage. The risk of lower growth in Scandinavia due to demographic pressure is most pronounced in Denmark, which has pursued a more restrictive immigration policy than the other Scandinavian countries. If Denmark cannot recruit from elsewhere, and if productivity cannot be increased, demographic pressures will mean Denmark must accept a growth rate of 1% per annum, compared to the 2% per annum growth it has enjoyed. The increase in the proportion of seniors in society can lead to a less dynamic society: a “Japanization.” Slower growth also makes it harder to raise taxes and financedesires for welfare.

Senior citizens will be an increasing proportion of consumers over the next ten years. But seniors also have more buying power than other age groups, if we distribute their income and savings over their life expectancy. The question is whether they will use their consumption power, or set aside money against the chance of living to an advanced age and the need to supplement the state's welfare offering.

Who are the young seniors?

It is important to distinguish between the three groups of older people: healthy and fresh people; elderly with disabilities, but who take care of themselves; dependent elderly who are debilitated and require care. In total, the number of young seniors aged 55-75 will especially increase. At the same time, the proportion of “healthy and fresh” elderly will increase in all age groups, so that the number of true young seniors will increase even more.

This member report focuses on young seniors. This group is “old” only according to birth certificate and old, often entrenched notions of when senior life and old age begin. The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies has, in the past, described this group as “Free 2”. Free 2'ers find fewer restrictions on their lives - compared both to what was expected for earlier generations and to earlier phases of their lives. First, they are not significantly physically or mentally weakened.

Second, few of them still provide for their children. Most have great financial freedom, so they can leave work if they cannot find a job that enriches their lives. The young seniors are 55 and older. Some will be young seniors rest of their lives, except, perhaps, for a short time of illness near the very end of life. Others will gradually weaken mentally and physically. While many, from around 80 years of age, will suffer many different disabilities that, in various ways, limit their lives, most 80 year-olds will be able to care for themselves. Medical advances and new technology will always contribute to more being cured or better able to help themselves, despite chronic illness or disability.

Break down of traditional stages of life

The traditional stages of life are breaking down. Many young people have their first child ten years later than their parents or grandparents did. Youth last longer. The phase of life that CIFS calls “Free 1” typically lasts from age 20 to 35. Many have children at age 40 or more. More have dependent children when they become seniors.

Increased life expectancy does not lead to more frail elderly unable to care for themselves. On the contrary. Increased life expectancy generally adds “good” years to life. This means more young seniors. The increase in elderly people requiring care is primarily a function of population growth. Many dependent seniors become so at the very last stage of life. But with longer life expectancy, this phase occurs later in life, and contributes, all else being equal, mainly to greater numbers of healthy seniors and, thus, perhaps to a reduced need for services and care for the elderly. Of course, treatment and medicine make it possible to be kept alive far longer than before, despite great impairment.

This trend can not overshadow, however, the effect of more years of “good” life. Dementia is the major cause of disability in old age. When fewer die of cardiovascular disease, pneumonia or cancer, more will live long enough to live with dementia. Despite rising life expectancy and more good years of satisfactory health, the effective retirement age has fallen, not least because of early-retirement programs and lowering the retirement age. While the retiree of 1960 could expect 11.5 years of retirement, the retiree of 2008 looks forward to 18 years.

other sections:

Young seniors at work

Young seniors as consumers

IM comments: the quicksilver society is on the way.  But where's the brass?

Chatham House RULES OK 

Challenge Network scenarios since 1996
Challenge Network scenarios since 1996 - lots of material here, many pages and much detail

"Early scenarios were generated at the Royal Institute for International Affairs, Chatham House, where they were produced by a public-private sector consortium called the Chatham House Forum. The 'for profit' arm of this was and is the Challenge Network, but the Chatham House aspect of the work was terminated in 2001.

"The Challenge Network activity started by consulting a wide range of British and European interests. Those scenarios generated in 1995 reviewed the three major uncertainties which this uncovered: the relations between the US and Europe - and the possibility of a Japanese revival - the nature of the post-Cold War security vacuum, and the reality of the "E"-economy. Subsequent scenarios have generated from public consultation, in-house work and the consequences of conducting many hundreds of strategy process for client organisations. Whilst these remain confidential, the insight that they generate filters into the global scenario work.

"Since 2000, the scenarios have been developed in the public space of the web, and have been published here on the Challenge Network Forum, the web site of the Challenge Network. Previous versions were published in book form by Chatham House, including one experimental version that included a CD ROM which when installed, delivered a huge network of linked Powerpoint presentations. The scenarios are published biennially, and during the Chatham House phase were supported by non-scenario reviews that were published in alternative years."

Scenarios for 2030

The 2006 scenarios

A note on process.
Key issues and interactions.
Archetype responses to a changing world: the scenario building blocks
International power and new institutions
Demographics as a profound trend
What does success look like for the old, rich nations?
Potential shocks and surprises
An introduction to the scenarios
The scenarios for 2030
Scenario logic: the structural underpinnings

Wednesday, April 01, 2009

Global Business Scenarios 

Finnish Business and Policy Forum EVA

What is the world like in the year 2020? What will the international playing fields look like – the fields on which Finland and Finnish corporations will play in the future? EVA has created four scenarios for the year 2020.

In the scenario ”Comeback of the West” the world order functions under the leadership
especially of the United States and Europe, but not on the West’s own

In the scenario ”Chinese capitalism”, the focal point of the economy shifts to Asia and the Middle-Eastern countries.

In the scenario ”Battle of the blocs” the rise of economic nationalism and state
capitalism triggers a battle between different economic regions.

In the scenario ”Stimulus and collapse” the attempts to stimulate the economy
fail. The global economic order collapses and the world begins to drift without a clear leader.

The report is a toolbox that challenges its readers to reflect upon the preconditions and factors of success for Finland, Finnish companies and employees. The report offers preliminary ideas on how the fulfillment of the scenarios would affect Finland and how we could prepare for possible changes in the operative environment.

Innovative Course 

OCAD - Academic Programs - Graduate Studies - MDes in Strategic Foresight and Innovation

The Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation integrates knowledge and methodology from a number of disciplines: design, business, science and technology, and the social sciences. Design provides the crucial link between these areas, drawing on its essential competencies of design thinking, strategic and iterative methodology, and a deep commitment to understanding human needs, wants and behaviour. Through holistic thinking in a co-creative environment, the designer, the business person, the social scientist and the engineer will develop together the skills required for true socio-technological innovation.

The MDes in Strategic Foresight and Innovation is a part-time, two-year, 45 credit program, comprising:

  • Two core directed studios
  • One foundational seminar in business and design thinking
  • Six required seminars
  • A major project

In order to support the needs of students who may be working full or part time while completing the program, courses will be clustered and/or offered in the evening. It is expected that most students will complete the program in two years (six terms).

Students will develop design thinking skills which include analysis, synthesis and strategic and creative thinking, and which are critical for professionals in the public, private and voluntary sectors. The program will develop students’ expertise in research and innovation methodologies to a high level and will enable them to acquire sufficient contextual knowledge to develop intelligent, innovative, visionary and future-enhancing solutions in their culminating projects. With their creativity and ability to navigate complex systems and guided by strong social and environmental principles, graduates of this program will be well-positioned to make meaningful societal change.


The Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation will graduate leaders in social innovation. Students will be encouraged to develop strategic innovations that create sustainable value, economically and ecologically, and that address pressing societal issues pertinent to their particular area of interest in the public, private or voluntary sectors. The program will enable students to:

  • Explore and test new methods of organization, creation and production.
  • Develop strategic, innovative and anticipatory solutions (strategic foresight) and implementation plans for design, business or policy innovations, or for organizational or infrastructural change.
  • Navigate complex problems through the study of systems theory and the analysis of relevant systems including ecological, social, economic and political organizations.
  • Develop an ethical sensibility that promotes socially and ecologically sound responses to complex global issues.

Key Features

  • Students will be engaged in a collaborative, co-creative studio environment in their core directed studio classes. Working in multi-disciplinary teams on many of their projects, students will benefit from the diverse disciplinary backgrounds of their faculty and of their fellow students.
  • An advisory committee of faculty and — in the case of real world projects — public or private sector professionals will support and guide each student’s major project.
  • A part-time schedule, evening classes, and some flexibility in course sequencing will accommodate the needs of working professionals.
  • Guest lectures and critiques from professional strategists and foresight experts.
  • A peer-reviewed journal, published biannually and featuring articles from the best of student projects/theses, capturing and disseminating new thinking on innovation.

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